might you and the mayor use your cities and highlighting your cities and the urban renaissance of those cities in the partisan events to actually make those issues maybe even less partisan. is that possible? >> yes. i do think it's possible to make them less partisan. historically they had been less partisan. one of the folks i most admire on transportation is the secretary of transportation, lay la hood who is a republican. he talks a lot about the way these infrastructure investments pay off. they pay off in direct jobs in terms of getting construction workers and emergencies and architects and others employed from a jobs perspective. when you look at the ability of cities to manage congestion and air quality, but also to create

more nobility choices for people, it's important. charlotte is growing by 30,000 new people every year net. >> 2/3 of the people in the county are from elsewhere? is that financial services or why? >> the largest employer in charlotte is carolina's health care system. health care is an increasingly large part of the economy and then we have energy companies and others that are playing a big role in the economy. people are coming for all kinds of reasons. from the standpoint of this question, our challenge as a city is integrating thousands of new people. every year. without raising our air quality and adding to the commute times and the congestion. transit infrastructure is critical for a growing place like charlotte. >> the mayor, can you tell us

about the la pell? >> this is the official convention pit. the dnc convention that shows lots of people. raising their hands in support of president obama which is going to happen in north carolina this year. >> what are the chances of president obama repeating? >> i feel good about it. >> no, i'm not. it's not a commonly-held view. >> it is. you have to be down on the ground like a mayor. >> for president obama wins north carolina, it will be because of what? >> it will be for several reasons. one, people get that the president walked in and we were losing 750,000 jobs on a monthly basis before he took office. to have the country go from that to 28 months of job growth in a row is a huge accomplishment.

they also know that this president is focusing on building the country back up from the middle class out as opposed from the top down. people get that. >> for he wins north carolina, do you think the convention will have helped? >> it will have helped. >> it's a way to get volunteers involved? >> absolutely. let me tell you, north carolina has not hosted the convention. never. the last one was in 1860. there is a lot of pent up energy for this type of activity. trust me, i think there is a lot of energy on the ground and the president will do just fine. >> sir? >> we >> i'm from the charlotte observer. on fund-raising there reports that haven't raised up to goals i think about 10 million, well

below the goals. i wanted to know the host committee said that fund-raising is on track. it hasn't given any specifics. the spirit as you said of an open and accessible convention. can you tell us how close and how much have you actually raised? >> i can reassert and reaffirm that we are right on track. i feel good about where we are. remember that we are doing something that is different than any convention in history to not take money from a corporation and tax and lobbyists and with all due respect, the convention in tampa is doing just that. that's the way these things have gone. we are building a different type of airplane. i think it's working and we will have a great convention.

>> this different type of airplane, can you say a percentage or of the $37 million goal, what was $10 million, can we say closer to 50% or 70%? >> i can tell you, we are right on track. there is a track right here and we are right on it. in the back? >> my name is caroline and we have seen three north carolina democrats congressional candidates say they won't be attending the convention and one of the districts is just nine blocks from the bank of america stadium. can you talk about the interparty politics and how it affects the morale and the fund-raising and the spin of the press you guys have been getting for the party? >> my strong guess is if you look at conventions on both sides, there people who choose

not to attend who are elected official or candidates for office. what you will find are the folks are not attending because they are working in the fields to get reelected or get elected in the first place. i don't begrudge anyone for that. there will be plenty of people and great democrats from around the country who will be part of this convention. it's not a concern. >> do you think the three-day convention will be the model for the future? do you think it makes the most sense or do you see it going back? >> i think it will be the model. 2008 was such an aberration and all the way up to the end. even there by the time the convention came around, you knew who the candidate would be.

i think conventions will be more about story telling and the narratives that both parties want to cast on major issues confronting the country. that's still a valuable part of conventions. to the extend that they are not floor fights or who the nominee is, i don't think that's all of the reason to have a convention. part of the reason to have a convention is to tell your story. we do that in courtrooms every day in this country as part of the process and think that's a great part of our democratic process. >> you decided not to run for governor this year. you are one of the best known rising young democrats in the country. you are 41. your new slimmer self with less of you, what do you see is next for you? >> well, i have got more than i can say grace over as we say in north carolina with what i have got on the plate.

two months on the convention. we have major projects that i want to see get done in charlotte. i have a 6 and an 8-year-old. they never have known anything but an elected official. they took time over july 4th to sit down and have dinner at home for a little while. the tug of home is always there. who knows. >> what will they do? boy and girl? >> one boy and one girl. they are going to be with us a lot during the convention. we will try to put them down relatively close to their bedtimes, but we want them to have a good experience with this convention. my daughter to be honest really wants to meet malia and sasha. i don't know if it will happen. >> i bet that could be arranged. >> last question. you mentioned that the plate, where should we go to eat?

what's the steak house? >> for those of you who are not worried about your weight, we have lots of really good places. as mayor of the city, i cannot tell you one, but i can tell you where to go. the main strip goes down to the university city, but i won't pick one. i will get in trouble. we have great farm to fork restaurants that are opening in charlotte. that's where i have been spending more time lately. >> i think that is not on the first lady. get your kids. i thank you all for coming out so early. thanks for our plit col colleague who is made it possible. land and mayor fox, thank you for a great conversation. good luck and looking forward to

seeing you on your terms. i will take your cupcake. . >> the road to the white house continues as we follow the candidates. in late august, republicans hold their national convention in tampa, florida. the democratic convention is the following week in charlotte. presidential conventions are schedule and election day is november sixth. you can visit the newly revised website. watch the latest events from republican periodial candidate mitt romney and president obama from the campaign trail. visit our social media section and see what the candidates and reporters and other viewers are

saying about the presidential race on sites like facebook and twitter the all that and more on c-span.org/campaign 2012. >> shreveport in march. oklahoma city in may and wichita in june. this past weekend in jefferson city. watch for the continuing travels of c-span's local content vehicles every month on book tv and american history tv. next month, look for the literal culture of our next stop. the weekend of august 4th and 5th on c-span 2 and 3. >> a polling expert said according to exit polls, mexico's youth voters who were involved in the recent presidential election with a mex cal polling firm said the institutional party candidate now president-elect lost the majority of the big voting

block. his assessment and others came during the panel analyzing the 2012 mexican presidential election results yesterday. this is two hours. >> good morning, ladies and gentlemen. my name is eric oleson and i'm the associate director at the mexico institute. i top the give you a special welcome to the woodrow wilson center on this july 9th. the 4th of july vacationers. we will be joined by a number of other people. we did want to get started. we want to welcome folks who have been viewing this online through the wilson center web feed. also folks from c-span who have joined us this morning. give them a special welcome. as all of you know, mexico held a historic election on july 1st.

historic in many ways that we will discuss this morning. one of us was that it appears to have resolved it in the election as the president of mexico's election has been confirmed by the federal electoral institute. while there remains controversy out there about the results and how those will be interpreted, this has been a positive good exercise in elections in mexico. we assembled this morning an excellent panel to help us discuss the results and what they tell us about the thinking that pervades in mexican amongst the electorate and what this may mean for the future of mexico

and to some extend the u.s.-mexican elections. our first panelist has been delayed and he will come at some point and probably end up with him rather than begin with him. i wanted to turn now to our colleagues and friends. i will introduce them and they will come and speak and we will have time for questions at the end of that. we will begin with the executive director or ceo of laredo. this is one of the top public opinion consulting firms in mexico well-known for the public opinions. he was the lead pollster for the university newspaper and also did really interesting polling for the dallas morning news

about the issue of public security and the role of the military and a number of things. we asked him to dive into the question of polling and public opinion and what the elections tell us. polling as you may know in mexico has been itself a subject of great debate. questions about the reliability of it and the neutrality of it and what better opportunity than to hear from one of mexico's leading pollsters and public opinion surveyors. thank you for being with us. we will also hear from the defense and you will hear them come up numerous times one of the leading public universities of mexico and mexico city and the center for research and economic teaching in mexico and

wilson center had a close relationship. joy is an expert on democracy and has been working lately. most recently on the issue of the pri and the party of the institutional revolution and now regained the presidency after a 12-year hiatus. very appropriate research and timely research for us to hear from joy on the meeting of this election. then we will hear from a very good friend and colleague, associate professor at the paul nicci school of studies at johns hopkins university and a mexican who divides his time between washington, d.c. and mexico. we appeared together last week.

you will see that he spent a week or ten days around the election. so has a lot to tell us firsthand at the academic research. last but not least, we have invited our new wilson center visiting scholar who has been a long time friend of the mexico institute. also a professor in mexico city, but on a year long sabbatical spending some of his time here in washington, d.c. working on accountability. it has been one of his main themes for academic research and professional work over the years. he has been traveling to many parts of the world to look at how governments and countries deal with the issues. we are excited to have him.

i should point out that maurice was a member and a citizen counsellor in the 2000 election and member of the federal institute. that was a historic moment for mexico when they held the first about theial election on an independent institute for the first time. he was a part of that historic group of people that oversaw that election and saw the pri long-ruling government party lose the election for the first time. now 12 years later, they are winning again. we are delighted to have him with us as well. with that destruction, i'm going to invite jorge with a presentation to come forward.

i am going to start speaking on what has been major problems. scandal to describe it about what went wrong with the policy. in general public opinions and the pri under estimated. this is something that affected the majority, most of the polls and i will try to give you an explanation of what really happened. we are at the earliest statements of research. i think that at least i have found it's more possible that

there is evidence to support what went wrong. the first thing is that you can look at this graph. it will probably not look that well. these are all the polls that were published in the campaign. they are the actual resort and you can see they gave the pr ian advantage and they gave it 4, 5, 6 percentage points if caught on election day. there is an estimation of the officer. let me first point out that as you can see, she was in first place. there was not even a single published point that had other out come than this. they had him 2 percentage points ahead, but no one knew who did

that research. secondly as you can see, all the polls show how they got into second place. he started in third place, but he began to improve and by may, it was clear he was in second place. they reflected this pretty well. third, if you look at the talks that there was a experience by the media and pollsters. if you look at two weeks before the election, there was not even a single public opinion poll that was different from the others. they have advantaged and the pollster for the traditional

were not published in the resources because obviously they looked at the campaign and they didn't like it. but the results were in advantage of 10 or 11 percentage points. two weeks before the election, all major points have more or less a good advantage. there was a divergence at the end on the final measurement. what happened and what went wrong. i think that just to put into context and to give you an idea of what i think is the most plausible explanation, this has to do with the new electoral law & the measurement of public opinion. for the first time since 1988, all party his to appear

separately on the ballot. this meant there were only 4%, but seven partisan choices on the ballot. in 2006, the law allowed that all parties nominating the same candidate could appear under a single law. the ballot in 2006, what they reflected was the strength of the candidates. this was not so in 2012. why i think this is important is because look at the actual official results. it is a nightmare. this is more or less -- look at the combinations. there was 8 percentage points of

electorate that crossed the pri and the green party laws. 6.1% got crossed all three parties. and so there were about 60 percentage points out of 100 voters that voted for different combinations of parties. kboeng any were able to measure this accurately. none were telling us that this happened. this reflects a very complex voting pattern. we have not seen it before. in 2009, this law applied to the same law. but it's a mid-term election. it's a partisan vote and we didn't see this multiple voting.

this was really, really important. what does this mean in terms of measurement? what was more important in this election was to measure candidate strengths. it was as simulated on the ballot that had the same structure. because we would not be able to capture this. this is obviously due to the fact that the same or different pears nominated the same candidate. you follow the campaign and you can see they are asking for the vote for the green party. you could see also the workers party, the pt asking for the vote and moving in.

it was very, very clear that the same candidate was asking for the vote for different parties. this obviously found a recollection. this tells you about the pattern that i continuing could have taken place on election day. in what sense, this requires a lot of attention to the ballot, which parties nominate the same candidate and all that stuff. to give you an idea of the measurement issues, if you compare the official results with exit polls were highly accurate on election day and want to stress this. these are the actual results of the exit poll. if you look at the candidate, the difference between each candidate is less than 1 percentage point.

well within the sampling error. if you look at the exit poll results, segregated by party, i only have 8% report for the party's vote. i under estimated. this was a is shement taken a few seconds or minutes after they casted their vote. it was the same ballot and it didn't measure accurately on multiple votes. we were able to measure accurately candidate strength. summarize what happened. i think that those were able to

better measure, there were those who were asking about candidates and not those who use like i did, the more orthodox approach which was to use an identical simulated ballot. you would probably have done better if you ask for the candidates. whom would you vote for. many of the firms that deviated from the official result were using the simulated ballot. this is a measure and problem and i think that what we have to do in the industry in mexico is to get rit of the simulated ballot.

it's not going on in terms of the strength of the candidates. in the u.s., this is what you are using for the telephone poles. you don't try to reflect the ballot as it takes place. the same identical bell on the. they use machines and voting and other kind of stocks. probably we will have to change that, especially in elections for president or big elections. especially in the candidate center h. this being said, i would show you some of the reasons behind the vote of the mexico and the patterns of voting. this is based on the exit poll i just mentioned. first thing according turn out, this is a comparison of the